Should I Hold or Should Sell?

New Zealand’s housing market right now, September 2025, is best described as steady with creaks, and showing clear signs that there is no obvious "buy" or "sell" answer, because right now, “it depends” is the only accurate statement I can make.

Here are some of the most important trends:

• Stable to flat prices in many areas. While some regions are seeing modest increases, many areas are seeing little change (or slight falls) in median prices year-on-year.

• Inventory is high. There are a lot of listings out there, homes for sale are up significantly in many regions. That gives buyers more choice, which reduces urgency and weakens pricing power for some sellers.

• Falling interest rates but still cautious buyer sentiment. The Reserve Bank and lenders have dropped rates, which helps, but economic headwinds (job market, inflation, cost of living) are limiting how aggressive buyers feel.

• Differentiation by property type. Not every property is being treated equally by the market. Well-presented family homes in good locations are doing relatively well; quirky properties, or those needing significant work or in less desirable locations, are holding up less well.

• Modest growth expected later. Many forecasts predict flat or mildly positive price growth in 2025, with more noticeable growth possibly in 2026.

  
  

Given the current state, whether to sell or hold depends heavily on what kind of property you have, your financial flexibility, and your goals. Below are some guidelines/considerations.

Good Time to Sell if You Have One of “Those”

If you own one of the in-demand properties, well-presented family homes with multiple bedrooms, in a good zone, in good condition, or with great potential, now is a strong time to sell.

Why?

Because there simply aren’t enough of them. Quality homes are scarce, and buyers are plentiful, so competition is fierce when a good example comes to market.

That said, be realistic. Selling well today doesn’t mean you’ll get your money back if you bought in 2021.

17 Warwick Street, Western Springs is for sale right now.

Good Time to Hold if You Have One of the Rest

If you have an apartment, unit, townhouse, or your property is quirky, needs work, is in a less sought-after location, or is non-standard, holding is often the safer strategy.

• The demand for these is weaker, so selling means accepting a discount or being on the makret for a long time.t.

• If you have capacity to invest (e.g. for renovations), doing so can increase your chances when the market shifts.

Opportunities: “Trading In The Same Market”

Even if you feel stuck with a property that’s less-than-ideal, there are chances to capture value by trading within the same market:

• Spot undervalued gems: Homes that are under-market because of poor presentation, minor issues, or bad photos can be picked up by keen buyers. If you sell your “good property” and find a bargain, you might end up better off.

• Upgrade then sell: Sometimes, investing modestly in cosmetic improvements (painting, flooring, kitchen or bathroom refresh, landscaping) can make a “quirky” place behave more like a “well-presented” one, narrowing the discount.

• Look regionally: In many regions outside the main cities or premium suburbs, bargains exist, especially for people willing to do a little work or accept longer commuting distances.

• Use timing: Spring is still traditionally better for listing, but winter can give you less competition and more serious buyers if done properly.

Caveats & Risks

• Economic headwinds: unemployment, inflation, cost of living could worsen, which affects buyer confidence.

• Interest rates: while they’ve come down, further rate cuts might be limited, and any shock (inflation surge, global issues, Trump being Trump) could push rates up again.

• Policy/regulation: zoning, overlay rules, foreign buyer regulations, rental rules could all change and affect desirability.

• Overbuilding or supply surges in certain segments (e.g. townhouses, smaller units) could suppress value in those areas.

Bottom Line

• If you own a well-presented family home: Think seriously about selling now (or preparing to sell in the immediate window), especially if you want good value, less risk, or to cash up.

• If you own a more marginal, quirky, or less desirable property: Holding is likely safer, but only if you can maintain it, possibly improve it, and be patient until the tide turns more favourably.

• If you’re buying: Be picky, location + presentation + demand matter more than ever. And don’t ignore the chance for bargains, especially regionally or in the “less sought-after” stock.

• If you’re selling & buying in the same market: Sell the good, buy the potential. Use your equity, timing, and presentation to your advantage.

If you have …	Selling might make sense …	Holding might make sense …
Well-presented family home — 3, 4, 5 bedroom villas and bungalows in good suburbs, good school zones, tidy condition	• If you want to capitalise on the stronger demand these still attract, especially if there are few competing listings in your area. • If you are older, want to downsize, free up cash, or reinvest elsewhere (esp if interest rates on new borrowing are favorable). • If you expect the “best season” (spring-to-summer) and can stage your home well to maximise appeal.	• If your mortgage is favorable and continuing ownership costs (rates, maintenance, insurance) are manageable and you believe values will rise more in your area (especially into 2026). • If you don’t need the cash urgently and can ride out the slower periods. • If there are upcoming improvements or regulatory changes in your area that may boost value.
Quirky / non-standard homes — unusual layouts, heritage issues, significant renovation required, less‐desirable location	• If you get a strong offer or can sell to someone who values the quirks (heritage buyer, etc.). • If holding costs are becoming painful (maintenance, insurance, rates) or you anticipate regulatory risk (e.g. tough heritage restrictions, compliance costs). • If you expect the market for quirky homes to continue lagging, you might miss out by waiting too long.	• If you bought well, have equity, and can afford to wait while the market improves. • If you can invest in upgrades to make it more appealing (reduce the “quirky” downside). • If alternative properties (that are more standard) are expensive, you might get more value in holding and then trading within similar market.